Ammunition Shortage? Not Seeing the evidence here.

You don’t have to look very far to read multiple breathless accounts of the return of ammunition shortages at retail outlets. I’m not seeing that right now.

It is true that the available distributor stock fell dramatically during the last 69 days:

But this appears to be only but a recent adjustment following a spike the saw a 30% increase in just 11 days.

Here is the one year view:

Over the course of a year, ammunition stocks are actually up – not down, even after the most recent peak was delivered to retail channels.

I am seeing more deliveries of unusual cartridges like the 416 Rigby and 458 Lott now that capacity is not so constrained at the manufacturers.  I suspect the spike, and the recent sell-down, is likely due to the renewed availability of these types of cartridges against retailer backorders.

Chart Notes:
Data Source: Daily Inventory Tracking Data – Well-RegulatedMilitia.com/FFL
All units shown are in boxes of ammunition.